Showing posts with label W.D. Gann. Show all posts
Showing posts with label W.D. Gann. Show all posts

Friday, March 15, 2024

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle │ March - April 2024

 
» I’m not trying to predict the future; I am trying to accurately and quickly depict the present. 
I’m not trying to predict what people will do, but rather identify what they are doing right now. «  
Chris Camillo, 2023
 

Monday, January 8, 2024

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle │ January 2024

 
 
» The lunar node, quite abstractly speaking, is the point of intersection of the solar and the lunar orbits. There are, therefore, two nodes in opposite positions in the heavens: an ascending node or lunar north node, and a descending node - the lunar south node. The solar and the lunar orbits are not, in effect, in the same but in different planes, enclosing a certain angle. Thus there arise the two opposite points of intersection. The peculiarity of these two points of intersection is that they do not stand still but slowly move. The plane of the lunar path rotates in relation to the plane of the solar path; so the two nodes move a round. They move around the Zodiac in a contrary direction to the rotation of the planets, i.e., from Aries backward through Pisces, Aquarius, etc. A complete revolution of a lunar node takes place in 18 years and 7 months; after this time, therefore, the node — the ascending node, for example — is once again in the same position in the Zodiac as it was before. The ascending node is, thereby, the mathematical point that (at any given time and again after 18 years and 7 months [= 6,798.383 CD] the lunar orbit rises above the solar orbit, while at the opposite point the descending node sinks below it. «

Willi O. Sucher, 1937.
 

Thursday, December 21, 2023

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle │ Projection into April 2024

 
Dec 21, 2023 (Thu) = May 10, 2005 (Tue)
 
 
 In bull markets, New Moons are bottoms, and Full Moons are tops. 

Jan 3 (Wed) 22:30 = 270°
= Last Quarter    
Jan 11 (Thu) 06:57 = 0° = New Moon    
Jan 17 (Wed) 22:52 = 90° = First Quarter    
Jan 25 (Thu) 12:53 = 180° = Full Moon    

Friday, September 8, 2023

The Art of Forecasting Wheat Prices Using Harmonic Cycles | L.H. Weston

Numerous attempts have been made during the past century to find a fairly reliable method for determining, long in advance, the probable price of wheat and grain in general [...] We have a wheat record that runs back, upon unimpeachable authority, for several hundred years, the one given in this booklet beginning in the year 1270 and running up to present time, with years as the unit of time, and it would indeed be strange if, with such a record, we could not pick out the useful cycles in it, providing any such cycles really do exist [...] That there are recurring cycles of movement in nearly all, if not, indeed, absolutely all natural phenomena, there is now no longer any reasonable doubt. No scholar of the day, no scientist, no investigator of these times, would for a moment argue against this well established fact.
 

[...] In the following pages I give the recorded mean price of wheat for each year in England from the year 1270 to 1909, in both a table and a diagram. Also, in a diagram, the monthly mean price of wheat at Chicago and Cincinnati from 1844 to present date. Special charts are also given to illustrate the explanations regarding the method of forecasting by means of cycles. By means of these tables and charts I show in this work how a forecast of the wheat market can be made up for over 40 years. In fact, I chart the forecast in advance over 10 years, for the benefit of readers and students. It is done just as proposed above, namely, by first proving that the harmonic cycles really do exist in the records, and then carrying them on into future years. The calendar year is used as the unit of time (or the calendar month) and therefore the forecasting, as taught, is necessarily of the long swing movement. 
 
 
 
[...] On page 27 is given the table of composite and harmonic values in the 49-year cycle. That composite is, as before stated, the result of eleven cycles added together, while the harmonic values are merely the smoothed curve of this same composite, and both are charted together on page 26. 

 
[...] This result is given in the Composite Chart of the 49-year cycle and it is the one used as the basis of all forecasting. If we examine the composite chart with some attention we will find that there are just about eight places where tops come out and likewise there are eight bottoms. Eight into 49 goes 6.125 times, so it seems very much as though the famous 7-year cycle of the ancient Jews was in reality about six and one-eighth years instead of 7. It is the eighth harmonic that gives the best results in the 49-year cycle, instead of the seventh.

The Gann 707 Fractal | Allen Reminick

W.D. Gann understood the nature of how markets expand, how they contract, the differences between time frames and the similarities between them. Nowadays we call this fractal geometry. Fractal geometry is extremely important to understand how markets develop and has been used by various market technicians. 
 
How do we use the 707 fractal to forecast the next few months in the S&P 500? In our most recent forecasts we've talked about a continued rally into the 20th or 25th of September 2023, and probably another high around October 3rd. After that we're looking for a decline that may be somewhat severe:


 
The number 707 shows up here on several different time frames. In the chart below the blue line is the 240 minute bar chart of the S&P 500 Futures shifted forwards by 707 units, and the red bars above are the actual current market: 
 

What is really interesting is that 707 weeks (707 weeks ≈ 12.9 years) and 707 months (≈ 58.916 years) are also repeating. This is where the concept of fractals comes in. Different time frames are having the same form or pattern. Look at this chart of the weekly S&P 500:
 
The major low of 2009 and the major low of October 2022 are 707 weeks apart.
 
The low in 2009 lines up to the week with the low in October 2022 - the major low that kicked off the whole bull market since 2009. This is lining up exactly with the low in October 2022, and the pattern in the decline between 2008 matches the decline in 2022. Even though the price action was much more severe back then, the form was the same. And we are talking about the form and now the rally that was taking place since October is also repeating very nicely 2009 into 2010 and 2011. 
 
 
So we saw two examples of 707, the first on the 240 minute bar chart and the second on the weekly chart. From this we take it one step further and look at 707 months (58.916 years). 707 months turns out to be two times the exact length of the cycle of Saturn. 25.457 years is the exact number of years of Saturn's revolution times two which equals 707 months to the day = 10,759 days.

 
See also:

Tuesday, June 20, 2023

L.H. Weston - Gann’s Professor | Hans Hannula

I've been told that Gann was very private about his office. He absolutely forbid anyone from entering it. He wanted to protect his secrets. But one document he kept in his safe. That document was a manuscript by Professor Weston of Washington, D. C. It was written in 1921 (part 1) and 1923 (part 2), four to six years before Gann published his Tunnel Thru the Air, Or Looking Back From 1940, Tunnel Thru the Air contains, in coded form, Gann’s explanation of how to use planetary cycles to trade stocks and commodities. 
 

He told his own family that it was all they ever needed to learn his market secrets. Many Gann students have labored very long and hard (yes, me, too) to decode Gann's writing. Gann loved to write in the abstract style of the Biblical mystics, whom he admired. Much of what is written in the Bible is information about planetary cycles. It is hidden in census counts, symbolic imagery, and heavily coded to escape notice of the casual reader. While one can dig out this material, it takes time, an ephemeris, and a lot of work. Gann had it much easier. What you are about to read is the paper Gann kept in his safe. 
 
Take your time and read it carefully. It’s one of the best papers ever written on the market. 
After you read it, I'll point out some interesting things about it.
 
 
[...] First, this is clearly the foundation of Gann’s use of the 10 year cycle, and its multiples. Second, this is historically a fairly early use of Fourier sequences, and far more mathematical than just using financial astrology. This is no surprise, since it is well known that Gann was a very good mathematician. It is also a source of many of his ideas that market movements follow geometric rules.
 

[...] It is also quite interesting that Weston actually proposed two different versions of the ten year pattern. The first is his computation, using 50 years of data, of a series composed of 20 , 28, 10, and 14 month components, to which he adds a Venus term. In this system he cites use of heliocentric positions. We'll call this first method "Weston’s Curve’.

A most interesting point made in this method is Weston’s discovery that the planetary cycles tend to slip to synchronize with the earth’s annual cycle. I discovered this in my own work, and was sure it was an original discovery. So much for that vanity!

The second method I call “Weston’s Snowflake.” In it he proposes a sequence of turning points in the Jupiter-Saturn cycle that divides it into 10 irregular parts. Interestingly, Weston claims that this is a geocentric system. We'll show in a moment that it was not. But this “false lead” may have been intended for those whom Weston feared would learn his secret. Gann obviously made good use of Weston’s methods.  


[... Weston used] the 0, 18, 54, 90, 126, and 180 degree points of the Jupiter-Saturn cycle as turns. One can quickly see the problem with using this geocentrically. Almost all of the points are triple points, as the earth moves around the sun, giving multiple views from which to measure the angle between Jupiter and Saturn. The problem becomes one of which points to use.

[...] It took only one look at using this rule heliocentrically to convince me that Weston used it that way. Obviously, W. D. Gann watched these outer configurations to be alert for the deviations they might cause in the Jupiter-Saturn cycle. You are advised to do the same.


 

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

Range Extension & Contraction - Reversals - Time Cycles | Stacey Burke

 
oOo
 
Old Baron Rothschild's recipe for wealth winning applies with greater force than ever to speculation. Somebody asked him if making money in the Bourse was not a very difficult matter, and he replied that, on the contrary, he thought it was very easy. "That is because you are so rich," objected the interviewer. "Not at all. I have found an easy way and I stick to it. I simply cannot help making money. I will tell you my secret if you wish. It is this : I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon."

Jesse L. Livermore

oOo

Quoted from:
 
See also:
 
Weekly Cycle and Market Structure in Gold (1 hour chart):
Daily and Weekly Highs and Lows, Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels, Inside Days, Outside Days,
Daily and Weekly Accumulation-, Extension-, and Distribution-Levels, Breakouts, False Breakouts,
V Patterns, M & W Patterns, Peak Formation Highs and Lows.

Friday, October 14, 2022

Chinese Stock Indices, Gann Time Theory & Solar Terms | Tianbao Zhou et al.

Tianbao Zhou, Xinghao Li & Peng Wang (2021) - Stock indices proved to be rather predictable to some extent. Therefore, according to the study, investors can invest in ETFs that belong to the indices as an ETF is completely coincidental with the index it belongs to. Furthermore, ETFs provide investors with a variety of options of risk and profit. The Shanghai ETF is smooth whereas the Second Board 50 Fund fluctuates a lot. Investors are able to get a high profit from individual stocks as well through implementing the results of this study. The correlation between the turning points of indices and the Chinese 24 solar terms was positive (r = 0.9878).

Turning points always occur near solar terms. Through testing n-day extreme points with a different n value, the sharp turns of the trend often happened near the solar terms, and if we choose 4 days as the valid time radius, the probability is about 80%. Investors should be alert for four days before and four days after a solar term. If the price is too high (low), it is more likely to be affected by the coming solar term, and the higher (lower) the price is, the more instability the trend then would have. However, solar terms are not always strong turning points, but they might cause weaker turning points. In other words, solar terms might not cause a sharp reversal of the stock trend; strong turning points were just some exceptions. Usually, the turning points were not that strong but sufficient for medium-term and short-term investors. The alert period provided investors with a good strategy for short-term and medium-term trading. When judging the upcoming reversal, it should be dynamic. 
 
 
[...] Eight of the Chinese 24 solar terms are very prominent, namely, Chunfen (6), Xiazhi (12), Qiufen (18) and Dongzhi (24), which represent the most vigorous time-points in each season and are the most important four solar terms; the other four are Lichun (3), Lixia (9), Ligiu (15) and Lidong (21). These four represent the beginning of each season and are the second important four solar terms.
 

To our surprise, the importance of these eight solar terms exactly coincides with the wheel of the cycle theory in Gann theory. In Gann’s wheel, the most important four angles are 90°, 180°, 270° and 360° (0°), and the corresponding time-points of each year are exactly the four solar terms of Chunfen (6), Xiazhi (12), Qiufen (18) and Dongzhi (24). The second important four angles, 45°, 135°, 225° and 315° exactly correspond to the four solar terms of Lichun (3), Lixia (9), Liqiu (15) and Lidong (21). Regardless of the angle in Gann theory or solar terms, they all point to a common rule, that is, the stock trend is most likely to turn at these eight points. We can summarize the above results as follows: variable or more significant extreme points often occur at the solar term point, and the solar term point usually makes the stock trend turn according to its strength, and the turning strength is large or small.
 
[...] the Chinese traditional culture, human society is affected by natural factors at every moment, and one of the factors is time (including the time cycle, time-points and time periods). Despite the fact that the absolute price of a stock is generally supposed to be unpredictable, the turning points and reversal of trend of stock indices have rules to follow. 
 
Gann theory suggests that the cycle of time is almost everywhere in the stock market, like our pulse cycle and four seasons of the year. Nobody denies the existence of the time cycle as it retains its rationality and regularity in the nature. Whether or not we know, the regular shocks and vibrations in the stock market caused by time do happen.

[...] we only analyzed the trend and turning points of the Shanghai Index rather than a certain stock or an absolute stock price. We supposed that the index is a wide and general performance of the stock market which eliminates many extreme and irregular cases. Many theories have focused on calendar effects, and all of them show the effort in searching for the independent time factors over regular human factors that may affect the stock market. However, such a division of time is so modern that the turns do not always fall on them. 
 
Besides the solar terms, in China, we have 12 zodiacs (corresponding to a 12-year cycle), lunar months (corresponding to the monthly change of the moon), 10 heavenly stems and 12 earthly branches as well as the constellation of both the Chinese version and the Western version. Thus, we can see that throughout the history, ancient people were always doing tremendous work in summarizing many kinds of time cycles in order to survive, forecast and develop their civilization.
 

[...] The 24 solar terms in each year and their links accurately fitted the trend of the stock in that year. Using 24 price data-points instead of nearly 250 daily data-points of the whole year could make the daily data of high frequency more concise and easier to process. With 250 high-frequency daily data-points, there is strong volatility, which leads to the obvious heteroscedasticity of the data and increases the complexity of data analysis. 
 
The use of 24 solar terms instead of annual data also greatly reduces this unstable and irregular fluctuation. This also coincides with Gann theory. The forecast of future trends in the all-terms group and the eight-terms group was precise, but there remained a gap with the absolute price. We were only able to forecast the time-points and the turning points; as for the absolute price, we hardly made it. This is because the stock market involves a great deal of instability and is extremely complicated.



[...] as we were inspired by Gann, Elliott and the Chinese 24 solar terms, we would rather look for those that do not change, and that is the key to have a better understanding and cognition of our real world, of course, including the stock market. For this reason, it is the higher dimensional time factor and time cycle that produce an overwhelming impact on the stock market, so it reminds us of taking into account the importance of time when conducting such a study. That is why Gann summarized a tremendous amount of time periods to inform the possible reversal in the capital market while the ancient Chinese figured out 24 divisions of a year as 24 solar terms which all solely point to time.

In addition, the ancient Chinese elaborated a complex system, and there are actually many  other divisions of time, years, months, etc. in the Chinese culture. For example, the ten heavenly stems and the twelve earthly branches decide what a year would be like, and that is a 60-year cycle as there are 60 different combinations of one out of the ten heavenly stems with one out of the twelve earthly branches. By the way, one combination is called Gengzi, which is supposed to be the year of disasters and conflicts; the latest Gengzi year was 2020.

 
 

Periods When to Make Money | Benner Cycle Projection into 2023 Major Low

Samuel Benner was a prosperous American farmer wiped out financially by the 1873 panic and a hog cholera epidemic. In retirement, he set about to establish the causes and timing of fluctuations in the economy. 
 
Edward R. Dewey (1967):
» If you had used these dates for trading, your percentage gains between 1872 and 1939
would have been 50 times your losses!
«

In 1875 he published a book called
"Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices" forecasting commodity prices for the period 1876 to 1904. Many - not all - of these forecasts were fairly accurate. The Benner Cycle includes:
  • A (upper line): "Years in which Panics have occurred and will occur again." A 54 year cycle alternating every 18, 20 and 16 years.
  • B (middle line): "Years of Good Times, High Prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds." Cycles alternating every 8, 9 and 10 years.
  • C (lower line): "Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a good time to buy Stocks, 'Corner Lots', Goods, etc, and hold till the 'Boom' reaches the years of good times; then unload". A 27 year cycle in pig iron prices with lows every 7, 11, 9 years and peaks in the order 8, 9, 10 years (B - middle line).
Benner's cycle projections align with the latest analysis of the "Foundation for the Study of Cycles" and are pointing to a major stock market low in the US in 2023. David Hickson's Hurst cycle analysis projects this low to March of 2023 and Martin Armstrong to April 11, 2023 (Tue).
 
» Periods When to Make Money « ; the original business card of George Tritch Hardware Co.
Apparently, the diagram was compiled by George Tritch in 1872, but was not attributed to
him by Samuel Benner in 1875.
 
References:
 

Monday, December 23, 2019

S&P 500 Index vs Division of Solar Year 2020 starting from Earth’s Perihelion


32nd Harmonic of Solar Year 2020 | W.D. Gann's Natural Trading Days:
[ 1 Solar Year = 360 Degrees of the Sun's Geocentric Longitude / 32 = 11.25 Decimal Degrees ]
 
2019 Dec 02 (Mon) 07:39:34 = 326.25
2019 Dec 13 (Fri) 13:31:43 = 337.5
2019 Dec 24 (Tue) 18:40:56 = 348.75
2020 Jan 05 (Sun) 01:47:00 = 360 = Earth's Perihelion
2020 Jan 16 (Thu) 04:24:47 = 11.25
2020 Jan 27 (Mon) 09:35:44 = 22.5
2020 Feb 07 (Fri) 15:33:59 = 33.75
2020 Feb 18 (Tue) 06:45:01 = 45
2020 Feb 29 (Sat) 14:52:49 = 56.25
2020 Mar 12 (Thu) 00:40:14 = 67.5
2020 Mar 23 (Mon) 12:04:20 = 78.75
2020 Apr 03 (Fri) 09:00:56 = 90
2020 Apr 15 (Wed) 00:03:59 = 101.25
2020 Apr 26 (Sun) 16:47:04 = 112.5
2020 May 08 (Fri) 11:20:33 = 123.75
2020 May 19 (Tue) 14:47:34 = 135
2020 May 31 (Sun) 12:02:01 = 146.25
2020 Jun 12 (Fri) 10:27:23 = 157.5
2020 Jun 24 (Wed) 09:24:58 = 168.75
2020 Jul 05 (Sun) 16:01:47 = 180 = Earth's Aphelion
2020 Jul 17 (Fri) 15:21:55 = 191.25
2020 Jul 29 (Wed) 14:12:04 = 202.5
2020 Aug 10 (Mon) 12:24:10 = 213.75
2020 Aug 21 (Fri) 16:44:08 = 225
2020 Sep 02 (Wed) 12:28:40 = 236.25
2020 Sep 14 (Mon) 06:37:08 = 247.5
2020 Sep 25 (Fri) 22:55:17 = 258.75
2020 Oct 06 (Tue) 21:19:28 = 270
2020 Oct 18 (Sun) 10:04:18 = 281.25
2020 Oct 29 (Thu) 21:05:34 = 292.5
2020 Nov 10 (Tue) 06:30:12 = 303.75
2020 Nov 20 (Fri) 22:28:34 = 315
2020 Dec 02 (Wed) 05:16:15 = 326.25
2020 Dec 13 (Sun) 11:02:37 = 337.5
2020 Dec 24 (Thu) 16:08:14 = 348.75
2021 Jan 02 (Sat) 07:50:00 = 360 = Earth's Perihelion

Previous Year HERE