Top Reasons to Exit S&P Short Positions Soon | Allen Reminick

The S&P market has been behaving as expected. It looks as if April 15 (Mon) or so could be a low followed by a bounce for a few days until April 18 (Thu) followed by another decline into the April 24 (Wed).

 

 Apr 15 (Mon) Major Low ?
Apr 18 (Thu) High
Apr 23-24 (Tue-Wed) Low

Bounce
May 9 (Thu) Major Low ?

May 24 (Fri) Major High
  Jul 24 (Wed) Major Low

 

Today is April 14 (Sun) and we're looking at this forecast as being very similar. But there are several different variations of this particular pattern. The most reliable one so far has been the year 2000 market. It is repeating almost exactly what happened in April of 2000 and that low came in on April 14. But we are looking for a low around April 23-24 (Tue-Wed), another bounce and another low around May 9 (Thu). The May 9th low may not be lower than the market is right now.

The analogs we're using are the year 2000, the 1996 market and the 2006 market. All of which are connected to the present market and you can see the overlap of the 1996 and the 2006 markets and how they go forward is extremely similar but not identical.

They both have a high late May, they both have a low late July. But from now until late May they have different variations on how they go forward. So at this point one needs to be cautious about expecting continued lower prices because the fourth wave does not have to be a big decline. It's after the Elliott fifth wave that you'd expect to see a major decline. 

 

After this whole correction phase is over we're expecting a new high by May 24 (Fri), a strong rally in the month of May and then after that a very big decline from May 24 (Fri) down into July 24 (Wed) area. That could be a very significant short position for those who want to go short or at least one once a hedge, one's long positions during that time. After that July low the market should again rebound strongly and by the end of the year make new highs.

So we're looking at a fourth wave correction which is probably going to end either in the next two weeks or it could be as late as May 9 (Thu) and then the fifth wave rally until late May followed by an ABC meaningful correction of the whole move from October 27th until May 24th that whole up move should be corrected in the two months after that. So if you're looking for a big decline it's not likely to happen now. It's more likely to happen after the end of May. 

 

Quoted from:
Allen Reminick (April 14, 2024) - Top Reasons to Exit S&P Short Positions SOON. (video)

 Solunar Rhythm, Cosmic Cluster Days & Sensitive Sun Degrees | April 2024

 

 

See also:
Tom McClellan (March 29, 2024) - Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for US Stock Market.

S&P 500 Bear Reversal - Gann's Time and Price Overbalance | Robert Miner

YM and RTY have already made Bear Reversal Signal. S&P and NQ should soon confirm. Gann's time and price overbalance signals: A daily close below 5283 would be an 'overbalance of price' and strong signal the trend should be net Bear for 3-4 weeks or longer.

 

Robert Miner (April 10, 2024) @ X

 

 

S&P 500 Update (April 12, 2024)

S&P 500 - All Correction Criteria Triggered | Lines On A Chart by Tom

All three correction criteria (Trend, Breadth & Momentum) were triggered:

1. Price trades below the short duration moving average (20 day exponential) — signifying the loss of the short term uptrend
2. Breadth turns negative — more stocks make new lows versus new highs
3. A concluding momentum interruption

Today marks the first instance since July of 2023 where all three correction criteria have been triggered:

1. The S&P closed 5160, below the short term moving average (5183)
2. Market breadth as measured by Net New Highs (middle panel) recorded as negative
3. Momentum (lower panel) remains negative following the 6th momentum interruption at the beginning of April

The activation of all three correction criteria has historically preceded significant market declines. For reference, see the chart from the opening March letter “When Will the Market Top?”

With all three criteria now active, the likelihood of a meaningful correction in the market increases significantly. As discussed in previous weeks, the correction targets for the S&P 500 are set at 4800, with a broader range between 4500 and 4600, representing a potential decline of 7% to 12%. I think it is very likely that hibernation for the bear participant is over.

Quoted from:
Lines On A Chart by Tom - Apr 10, 2024

The Path of the Moon's Shadow during the April 8 Total Solar Eclipse

During the Great North American Total Solar Eclipse on April 8 (a Monday) 2024 the path of totality of the Moon's shadow runs northeast across the Pacific Ocean, Sinaloa, Texas, Upstate New York, Newfoundland, the Labrador Sea, and the North Atlantic Ocean. For some moment Nazas in Durango will be the darkest place on Earth. And the invisible true lunar nodes are performing their particular choreography again.

Prepare for April S&P Correction Now │ Allen Reminick

Short term, the S&P market is topping in the next two weeks.

We've been discussing the 18 year cycle and the 12 year cycle and the 24 year cycle, all having agreement since March 12th, where they all implied that the market would rally until Monday, March 25th or longer. There is a very good chance that is the beginning of a sideways phase that could last until as late as April 10th. We're not expecting a dramatic continuation on the upside. Potentially the market goes slightly higher between now and April 10th, but it's a topping phase. 

 

It's a down, up, down, up, down, up kind of pattern. And finally, in the later part of April, it should make a low. Between April 16th and the 24th of April. But it may gyrate and just do nothing much until it's ready to fall between April 10th and April 24th.

 

After that, of course, we're expecting to see further, higher prices until May 23rd , between 5,400 and 5,600. This could be completing the move that started October 27th of 2023.

Quoted from:
Allen Reminick (Mar 23, 2024) - Prepare for April S&P Correction Now. (video)

S&P 500 March-April 2024 Seasonality │ Jeff Hirsch & Wayne Whaley

After 5 months of solid gains, are markets ready for a pause? Bullish Presidential Cycle Sitting President Pattern flattens out the mid-February to late-March seasonal retreat considerably without 2020 in the average.

 'Best Six Months' ends in April.

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 9, 2023, through (March 21, 2024), DJIA is up 18.4% and S&P 500 is up 20.9%. Fueled by interest rate cut expectations and AI speculation, these gains are approximately double the historical average already and could continue to increase before the “Best Months” come to an end.

This AI-fueled bull market has enjoyed solid gains since last October and will likely continue to push higher in the near-term, but momentum does appear to be waning with the pace of gains slowing. With April and the end of DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months” quickly approaching we are going to begin shifting to a more cautious stance. We maintain our bullish stance for 2024, but that does not preclude the possibility of some weakness during spring and summer.

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Mar 24, 2024) @ Twitter/X 

 

 

Reference:

 ICT Seasonality | Michael J. Huddleston

The Quarterly Theory | Jevaunie Daye

 

THE CORRELATION MODEL SEES A NEGATIVE LAST WEEK OF MARCH FOR THE S&P. Provided a time frame of interest, my correlation model calculates the Correlation Coefficients (-1 to +1) for the past performance of 4165 different time frames over the prior 3 months vs the performance for the time frame of interest in search of the period which has demonstrated the most barometric acumen in predicting the performance of the upcoming time frame of interest. 

 

This week I ask the model for it’s prognosis for the S&P in the last week of March. It responded that the prior ten calendar days (Mar10-24) had a very uncanny track record of forecasting the last week of March with those 2 time frames having a very strong NEGATIVE correlation which doesn’t bode well for next week given that March 10-24 was up 1.63% this year.  

 

Note the 3-10, March 24-31 performance in the far right category below in those 13 prior years where March 10-24 was greater than 1.2% for an avg wkly loss of 0.74% with 1% moves 1-7 to the downside.  This contrasts dramatically to the 11-2 performance when March 10-24 was less than -0.5%.  Fingers crossed that it is wrong this year. 

 

The outlook for April is much brighter. 

 

  

Reference: 

 Wayne Whaley (Mar 23, 2024) @ Twitter/X

 

[ oftentimes true: ]

 

In Bull Markets, New Moons are Bottoms, and Full Moons are Tops. 

In Bear Markets, New Moons are Tops, and Full Moons are Bottoms.

 

The SoLunar Rhythm in March 2024.

 

 

 

 

 

Pervasive Euphoria Across The Market | TomTheTrader

The markets closed another week at record highs, with the S&P 500 up by 2.3%, the Nasdaq by 3%, and the Dow by 2%. [...] I want to share two charts that caught my attention: The first chart, courtesy of Sentimentrader, depicts the small speculator index at the bottom. The annotation succinctly captures the essence of the chart— "small speculators are all in." 

 

 Small speculators are all-in.

This mirrors my observation last week regarding fund managers being fully invested based on the NAAIM index. The alignment between market participants, both large and small, underscores the pervasive euphoria across the market.

 Tech leadership vs S&P 500 is at highs exceeding the Great Financial Crisis.

The second chart, from Bank of America Global Research, highlights the Technology leadership versus the S&P 500, reaching levels surpassing those seen before the Great Financial Crisis. This serves as an intriguing backdrop to maintain awareness as sentiment and positioning continue to stretch.

Quoted from:

TomTheTrader1 @ Twitter/X
Lines on a Chart by Tom - (Mar 24, 2024) - The Market & The Moon. 

 

This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index number is 93.22. 

Active fund managers are all-in.

 

 [Euphoriameter]

 

 [CNN Fear & Greed Index ]

 

 

 [McClellan Oscillator]

 

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle │ March - April 2024

 

» I’m not trying to predict the future; I am trying to accurately and quickly depict the present. 

I’m not trying to predict what people will do, but rather identify what they are doing right now. «  
Chris Camillo, 2023

 

 

See also:

Previous Projections.

TPR (2015) - S&P 500 vs True Lunar Node's Speed and the Eclipse Crash Window.

S&P 500 vs Copper | J.C. Parets

 J.C. Parets @ Twitter/X - Mar 07, 2024

The relationship between the copper price and the S&P 500 Index is one of generally positive correlation, with divergent movements at times. The copper price is an economic bellwether due to its extensive industrial usage; the S&P represents general equity market sentiment. In the days of inflation driven AI craze the price of copper keeps declining.

S&P 500 March 2024 Seasonality │ Jeff Hirsch

Over the recent 21 years March has been a decent performing month for the market. Average gains over the period range from a low of 0.78% by DJIA to a respectable 1.40% by NASDAQ. 

 

March typically opens positively but selling pressure and weakness tend to follow quickly thereafter with choppy trading until around mid-month. From here on the market generally rallied to finish out the month. End-of-Q1 portfolio adjustments have contributed to additional choppy trading during the last three or four trading days of March. Election year average performance is influenced by across-the-board double-digit losses in 2020, but March’s pattern is similar with weakness in the first half and modestly improved trading in the second half.

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Mar 5, 2024) @ Twitter/X

S&P 500 vs VIX and Seasonal Patterns

Corrections and short-term market peaks often coincide with exceptionally low levels of market volatility.

Reference: ISABELNET - Feb 28, 2024.

 

Beware of the Ides of March: This year also coincides with the seasonal decline during presidential election years where the sitting president is running. Support levels to watch in the S&P 500: 4800 old ATH and 4600 near summer 2023 highs.

 

 Reference: Jeffrey A. Hirsch @ Twitter/X - Feb 28, 2024

February’s last trading day historically bearish. DJIA and S&P 500 have been down 9 straight and 11 of the last 12. NASDAQ has tried to buck the trend, up 3 of last 4 years. Potential setup for historically bullish first trading day of March.

Reference: Jeffrey A. Hirsch @ Twitter/X - Feb 28, 2024

 

 Reference: Wayne Whaley @ Twitter/X - Feb 29, 2024

 

Reference: Larry Williams' 2024 US Stock Market Outlook.

S&P 500 Seasonality Weak from Mid-February to Mid-March │ Jeff Hirsch

The big round number 5,000 is proving to be resistant. It will likely take a few attempts to break through. February’s notorious seasonal weakness is bound to relieve the market’s obviously overbought condition. This is not out of the ordinary for February even into March.

 

This usually mild retreat (around 4% on average) from mid-February to mid-March in election years with a sitting president running for reelection could be a good opportunity to establish new or add to existing positions. Election year seasonal patterns suggest respectable full-year gains. 

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Feb 13, 2024) @ Twitter/X 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Jan 24, 2024) @ Twitter/X

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for February 2024 | Jeff Hirsch

Typical February Performance: Weakness After Mid-Month Peak - After a strong opening day, strength has tended to fade until around the seventh trading day. From there until around the 12-trading day all five indexes have historically enjoyed gains. But those gains have not held until the end of February with a peak occurring around mid-month. By the end of February, only NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have remained slightly positive while DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 1000 turn negative.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Jan 24, 2024) @ X

 

See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch  (Dec 26, 2023) - 2024 S&P 500 Election Year Seasonal Pattern.

Larry Williams (Dec 18, 2023) - 2024 US Stock Market Outlook. 

 

2024 Turn Of the Year (TOY) Barometer Very Positive │ Wayne Whaley

The Turn Of the Year (TOY) Barometer is based on the S&P's November 19 to January 19 performance. This is the most predictive period of the year, the single most reliable seasonality barometer of forward stock market returns and the kingpin of seasonal barometers. A return during this 2-month period greater than 3%  is a bullish signal, and the market is very likely to do well over the following 12 months. A return of 0-3% is a neutral signal, and results of the current year are expected to be somewhat random. A negative return is a bearish signal for the year, and returns tend to be very poor. 

 

The 2024 TOY is +7.22%. Since 1950 if TOY was > 3%, the next year (January 19 - January 19) had an average gain of +16.5% with two single digit losses (32-2), and February - April was 32-5 for an average 3 month gain of 4.23%.

Credits:
Wayne Whaley (Jan 19, 2024) - The 2024 TOY Barometer.

See also:
Wayne Whaley (Jan 19, 2024) - The Turn of the Year (TOY) Barometer.

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle │ January 2024

 

 

» The lunar node, quite abstractly speaking, is the point of intersection of the solar and the lunar orbits. There are, therefore, two nodes in opposite positions in the heavens: an ascending node or lunar north node, and a descending node - the lunar south node. The solar and the lunar orbits are not, in effect, in the same but in different planes, enclosing a certain angle. Thus there arise the two opposite points of intersection. The peculiarity of these two points of intersection is that they do not stand still but slowly move. The plane of the lunar path rotates in relation to the plane of the solar path; so the two nodes move a round. They move around the Zodiac in a contrary direction to the rotation of the planets, i.e., from Aries backward through Pisces, Aquarius, etc. A complete revolution of a lunar node takes place in 18 years and 7 months; after this time, therefore, the node — the ascending node, for example — is once again in the same position in the Zodiac as it was before. The ascending node is, thereby, the mathematical point that (at any given time and again after 18 years and 7 months [= 6,798.383 CD] the lunar orbit rises above the solar orbit, while at the opposite point the descending node sinks below it. «

Willi O. Sucher, 1937.

 

See also:

TPR (Dec 21, 2023) - S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle: Projection into April 2024.

 

S&P 500 Weekly Reversal │ Robert Miner

December 29, 2023 = weekly high.
After a 9-week bull streak, the first week of 2024 closed lower = strong weekly momentum reversal.

January 05, 2024:
Expect some sideways-to-up move into around January 11-12 (Thu-Fri) before the continuation of a weekly bear trend.

Reference:
Robert Miner (Jan 07, 2024) - S&P 500 Weekly Momentum Reversal. 

S&P 500 Stats │ Wayne Whaley

Wayne Whaley (Jan 06, 2024) - The S&P broke a 9 week win streak last week. Normally any pullback in a strong advance will scan out as a buy signal. I posted 8 week advances instead of 9, so as to have +10 data points. The TOY Barometer aficionados will argue that the first week of the year is not just any week.

 

 

IsabelNet (Jan 06, 2024) - Historically, 9-week win streaks tend to be bullish for US stocks, with a median 12.4% increase in value seen a year later since 1950, giving investors good reason to expect a positive year in 2024.

 

 

IsabelNet (Jan 05, 2024) - From January to May of an election year, the performance of the S&P 500 index is often lackluster. However, as the year progresses, the market typically improves and delivers robust performance. 

 

IsabelNet (Jan 05, 2024) - Historically, the average annual return of the S&P 500 index tends to experience a substantial decrease during periods when stocks encounter challenges in the month of January.